How to Achieve Your Most Ambitious Goals | Stephen Duneier | TEDxTucson · TEDx Talks
Stephen Duneier通过一个简单的绘画实验，揭示了实现远大目标的关键在于决策方式而非天赋。适合练习决策思维和目标管理。
Translator: Oriel Yu Reviewer: Queenie Lee
翻译者：Oriel Yu 审稿人：Queenie Lee
By a show of hands.
请通过举手的方式来表决。
How many of you believe you could replicate this image of Brad Pitt with just a pencil and piece of paper?
在你们当中，有多少人认为自己仅用一支铅笔和一张纸就能还原出布拉德·皮特的这张照片？
Well, I'm going to show you how to do this.
好吧，我将向你们展示如何做到这一点。
And in so doing, I'm going to give you the skill necessary to become a world-class artist.
通过这种方式，我将教会你们成为世界级艺术家所需的各项技能。
And it shouldn't take more than about 15 seconds.
整个过程应该不会超过 15 秒钟。
But before I do that, how many of you believe you could replicate this image of a solid gray square?
但在我开始之前，你们当中有多少人认为自己能够重现这个纯灰色正方形的图像呢？
Every one of us.
我们每一个人。
And if you can make one gray square, you can make two, three, nine ...
如果你能做出一个灰色的正方形，那么你就可以做出两个、三个、九个……
Truth of the matter is, if you
事实上，如果你……
could made just one gray square, it'd
其实只需要画一个灰色的方块就可以了……
be very difficult to argue that you couldn't make every gray square necessary to replicate the image in its entirety.
很难反驳这样一个观点：即我们确实无法绘制出所有那些必要的灰色方块，从而完整地再现原图像。
And there you have it.
就是这样。
I've just given you the skills necessary to become a world-class artist.
我刚刚教会了你成为世界级艺术家所需的所有技能。
I know what you're thinking.
我知道你在想什么。
"That's not real art, certainly wouldn't make me a world-class artist."
那根本算不上真正的艺术作品；那样的作品绝对无法让我成为世界级的艺术家。
So let me introduce you to Chuck Close.
那么，让我来向你们介绍一下查克·克洛斯（Chuck Close）。
He's one of the highest-earning artists in the entire world, for decades, he creates his art using this exact technique.
几十年来，他一直是全球收入最高的艺术家之一；他所创作的所有艺术作品都采用了这种独特的技法。
You see, what stands between us and achieving even our most ambitious dreams has far less to do with possessing some magical skill or talent,
你看，阻碍我们实现哪怕是最雄心勃勃的梦想的因素，其实与是否拥有某种神奇的技能或天赋关系不大。
and far more to do with how we approach problems and make decisions to solve them.
实际上，这与我们处理问题以及如何做出决策来解决问题的方式有着更为密切的关系。
And because of the continuous and compounding nature of all those millions of decisions that we face on a regular basis,
由于我们日常面临的所有这些决策都具有连续性、累积性的特点，
even a marginal improvement in our process can have a huge impact on our end results.
即使我们的流程只有微小的改进，也可能对最终结果产生巨大的影响。
And I'll prove this to you by taking a look at the career of Novak Djokovic.
我将通过诺瓦克·德约科维奇的职业生涯来证明这一点。
Back in 2004, when he first became a professional tennis player, he was ranked 680th in the world.
早在2004年，当他刚开始成为职业网球运动员时，他的世界排名仅为第680位。
It wasn't until the end of his third year that he jumped up to be ranked third in the world.
直到他大三学年结束时，他的排名才上升至世界第三位。
He went from making 250,000 a year to 5 million a year,
他的年收入从 25 万美元增加到了 500 万美元。
in prize money alone, and of course, he did this by winning more matches.
仅奖金一项就非常可观了；当然，他能够获得这么多奖金，是因为他在比赛中赢得了更多的胜利。
In 2011, he became the number one
2011年，他成为了第一名。
ranked men's tennis player in the world,
目前世界排名最高的男子网球运动员。
started earning an average of 14 million a year in prize money alone and winning a dominating 90% of his matches.
他仅通过奖金收入每年就能赚取约1400万美元，并且在比赛中以90%的高胜率占据绝对优势。
Now, here's what's really interesting about all of these very impressive statistics.
现在，关于所有这些令人印象深刻的统计数据，真正有趣的是……
Novak doesn't control any of them.
诺瓦克无法控制其中任何一个（或：这些事物中的任何一个）。
What he does control are all the
他能掌控的，就是所有这些……
tiny little decisions that he needs to
那些他需要做出的微小决定……
make correctly along the way in order to move the probability in favor of him achieving these types of results.
在过程中采取正确的行动，从而增加他实现这些目标的可能性。
And we can quantify and track his progress in this area by taking a look at the percentage of points that he wins.
我们可以通过查看他赢得的分数所占的百分比来量化并跟踪他在这一领域的进步情况。
Because in tennis the typical point involves one to maybe three decisions, I like to refer to this as his decision success rate.
因为在网球比赛中，一个典型的得分过程通常需要做出一到三个决定，所以我喜欢将这一比例称为球员的“决策成功率”。
So, back when he was winning about 49% of the matches he was playing, he was winning about 49% of the points he played.
也就是说，当他每场比赛的胜率约为49%时，他在每场比赛中获得的分数（即总分的49%）也差不多是49%。
Then to jump up, become number three in the world, and actually earn five million dollars a year for swinging a racquet,
然后一举成为世界排名第三的选手，仅仅通过挥动球拍，每年就能赚取500万美元的收入。
he had to improve his decision success rate to just 52 percent.
他必须将自己的决策成功率提高到 52% 才行。